The reduction in base rates may not be the last we see, so expect them to come down again in 2009 in my opinion. Base rate movement decisions are based broadly on 2 factors, economic growth and inflation. If growth slows, rates are usually cut to stimulate consumer spending. However, we have an inflation rate in the UK significantly higher (around 5%) than the BOE's 2% target, so under normal circumstances that would signal an INCREASE in interest rates to slow down consumer spending, and bring the inflation rate back down. Where we are at the moment is we have an economy that is expected to slide into recession by the end of 2008/into 2009, and an inflation measure that is expected to come back towards the 2% target by the end of 2009, as all the price increases in fuel, energy, food etc we have seen in 2008 fall out of the equation (inflation is measured over a rolling 12 month period). So, with inflation not expected to be problematic in 2009, and an economy in recession, it gives the BOE a green light to slash interest rates and get us consumers out spending the money we save on mortgages etc. This is why the government have been putting so much pressure on Lenders to pass the reduction in interest rates on to us consumers, otherwise the rate cut would have no impact on the economy as we would have no extra money to spend. Lenders have been reluctant to pass on rate cuts (namely the last 0.5% one), as the rate THEY have to pay to raise money to lend out as mortgages is still high (c. 6%), so if they have to pay 6% to lend the money, they are reluctant to lend it out to consumers at a rate less than this. This is one of the end results of the credit crisis, inter bank lending has ground to a halt, and raising money for banks at the moment is both difficult and expensive. So with rates at 3% now, its the first signal that the BOE expects us to spend our way out of recession, so dont be surprised if rates come down further still. I wouldnt expect anything next month, but in the first couple of months of 2009 if growth has now shown signs of recovering, they could come down by anything up to another 1%.
Now I'm goin the pub......[:D]
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